Paul
Goble
Staunton, November 3 – China is
already playing the role of “first violin” in Central Asia even as it allows
Russia the illusion that Moscow still is and has become “the moderate of the
system of regional security,” according to Konstantin Syroyezhkin, a Kazakhstan
researcher. Thus it is “already too late” simply to be afraid of China and to
think that Russia will return.
“Only Eurasian integration could
stop the ambitions of China in Central Asia,” he continues, “but under the
condition that this process really works,” something that one cannot say of it
at present. Consequently, China’s role in the region relative to Russia and
other outside powers will continue to grow (ca-news.org/news:1129593).
Speaking to a session of the Club of
Young Political Analysts in Dushanbe on Friday, Syroyezhkin said that after the
Soviet Union disintegrated, China has played a variety of roles for Central
Asia and Central Asia has had a variety of meanings for the Chinese government,
but the growth of Chinese influence is something that no one can deny.
Over the last 15 years as Beijing
has launched a new program of developing its Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region,
he continued, it “has reoriented its foreign policy for the development of
economic ties of its western province with the countries of Central Asia, first
slowly and then ever more rapidly.
“China has always and will always do
everything in correspondence with its national interests,” Syroyezhkin argued. “China’s
strategic goals in the region are the solution of border problems and the
provision of security in border regions and also support for a geopolitical
balance in the region.”
At present, Beijing is seeking to
ensure the creation of conditions so that “there will not appear in the region
dominating powers or groups of states” and to that end “supports the illusion
of Russia that the role of first violin in the region is played by [Moscow],”
in order to avoid a direct conflict with the United States but nonetheless to “reduce
[Washington’s] influence.”
That reflects Beijing’s approach to
Chinese-American relations, he said. Beijing sees them as being in the nature
of “strategic competition,” but is not interested in “entering into open
confrontation.” That leads China to cooperate with Russia, and according to
Syroyezhkin, “China will not become a global leader because China does not have
a messianic idea.”
As
an example of this, the Kazakhstan researcher pointed to the fact that while
the majority of Central Asian leaders support Beijing’s proposal for the
development of an economic zone along the Silk Road, China itself does not have
“a conceptual idea” about it developed in any detail.
But despite that, the strengthening
of Beijing’s position in Central Asia means that China has become able to “dictate
its conditions to Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan as far as the price of gas is
concerned.” China’s “main goal is to be
a trading power and to push that image of itself.” For that happen, he said, it
needs the transportation and logistics system of Central Asia.
At
present, Syroyezhkin concluded, “the countries of Central Asia are being
converted into raw materials suppliers to the Chinese economy.” That trend will
continue into the immediate future, he said, “because those hopes which had
been placed on the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union have still not
justified themselves.”
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